New Hampshire, the Live Free or Die Granite State, as we all know, is a swing state this election cycle. There have been reports flying back and forth on dKos recently about the feel of things in NH and whether the state that propelled McCain's White House bids in 2000 and 2008 will be firmly in McCain's column this year. There are good arguments to be made for either side, and I'm doing to discuss some of the things, from a New Hampshire volunteer on the ground in Keene, in the southwest of the state.
Lets go over the fold.
I volunteer in wonderful Keene, as I attend Keene State College. My family lives up in Hooksett, in between Manchester and Concord, so I have somewhat of a feel for what is going on in both districts. Here's what I'm seeing so far:
* Sign War:
By and far, the Republicans are winning the sign-posting campaign. Note, the Republicans, NOT McCain. There is a difference to be made here. There are probably much more Republican signs out and about, but to be clear, most of them are not on lawns the Democrats and Obama are winning the yard-sign war. The Republicans do have more signs on public land and along the road, but by and far, I have not seen many McCain yard signs. I HAVE seen many Sununu signs, and Jeb Bradley, and other downticket Rethuglican signs, but hardly any McCain signs.
So, Obama is winning the signage war vs. McCain, but the downticket democrats are losing the yard-sign war vs. the downticket republicans. This might be an important thing to watch, because New Hampshire no longer has straight-ticket voting, instead anyone can vote for anyone running.
However, the latest polls do note a +12 point advantage for Shaheen in her matchup vs. Sununu. ( http://americanresearchgroup.com/... ). Obama seems to have slipped a little bit from his last polling of +10 points, so it is a good idea to wach the polls. Nate over at 538 still predicts that NH will fall into the Obama column.
* Bumpersticker War
As far as bumperstickers go, while driving I have seen literally hundreds of Obama stickers, in Keene and in Hooksett, but only TWO McCain bumperstickers. The first one I saw on the road, the second is my dad's, who I am still trying to swing.
Obama is winning the bumpersticker war with no doubt, and I tend to put more emphasis on this because it seems to me like you're more likely to get a bumpersticker than a yard sign when you support a candidate. There was a diary a while back that quotes a downticket dem saying that "A bumpersticker is worth about a thousand dollars in free advertising." So: go get your bumpersticker and donate 1000$ in free advertising to Obama!
* The PALIN issue.
Granite Staters tend to be fisically conservative, thus no sales or income tax, while being socially moderate/liberal. We have watch McCain go from being a somewhat social liberal in 2000 to being a total rightwing nutjob in 2008. This has scared many voters away from him. Our phonebankers have said that many of the republicans they have talked to are refusing to vote for McCain because of this. Some have gone to Obama, others to Barr, and a few are writing in Ron Paul.
Ah, Ron Paul, you're the gift that keeps on giving.
Anyhow, since Palin was chosen for VP, she has become an issue. What do I mean?
We ask voters what has brought them into the Obama camp, so we can record it online. Many people say the economy, or the war, or heath care, however, we are starting to note that more and more people are saying Palin made them switch to Obama.
One woman voter even said: "Palin scares the shit out of me."
Palin has done more to move former HRC voters to Obama than HRC herself could even do. Thanks John McSame!!
* The "FEEL" on the ground, or, what to expect on election day.
For the most part, the northern, far more rural and far less populous are much more Republican-leaning and tend to support McCain. These are the counties and towns that are going to be reporting first. So when the results start coming in, expect the state to look like it is going strong for McCain. However, the more populous south, including Manchester, Portsmouth, and Keene tend to learn much stronger towards Obama, and will more than cancel out the North. Expect NH to be close for awhile, but then expect Obama to start pulling away.
If I were to take an educated guess, I would say NH goes Obama +5% or so.
I'll finish this with a similar prediction from Rep. Jim Splaine over at Blue Hampshire, the place to keep informed about NH Politics:
For this year, I'll stick with my expectations that I came up with about 4 months ago in my Blogs. Governor John Lynch wins, Jeanne Shaheen wins, Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes win, Barack Obama wins New Hampshire by 7 percent, we have 3 Democratic Governor's Councilors, 18 Democratic State Senators, and a House with 262 Democrats.